In 2024, the price of white fused alumina rose sharply. The average price for the year is estimated at 5,485 yuan/ton, an increase of 960.08 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year, representing a growth rate of 21.24%. The Chinese white fused alumina market experienced significant fluctuations in 2024.
At the beginning of the year, the market had a strong festive atmosphere, and price adjustments were relatively limited. After the Spring Festival, the market began to recover, with alumina prices showing slight weakness, causing minor fluctuations in white fused alumina prices, though overall changes remained limited.
In late April, alumina prices surged significantly. After a brief period of observation, white fused alumina enterprises followed the upward trend. However, due to tightened shipments from alumina plants, white fused alumina production rates remained low.
In June, the upward momentum of alumina prices subsided. With high cost expectations, white fused alumina prices remained elevated, but downstream refractory companies were less accepting of these prices, leading to a market stalemate and a noticeable drop in activity.
At the end of the third quarter, alumina prices rose again. However, due to limited cost increases and weak demand, white fused alumina prices remained unchanged.
Entering the fourth quarter, the alumina market faced increasingly tight spot availability, causing prices to soar. This led to panic among white fused alumina enterprises, driving quoted prices to near three-year highs. Many downstream customers shifted to alternative raw materials for production, resulting in a significant drop in demand for white fused alumina and a sharp decline in market activity.
In 2024, China's production of fused white alumina reached 779,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.16%. The operating rate of white fused alumina enterprises remained at a low level throughout the year. At the beginning of the year, market demand was weak due to the strong festive atmosphere of the Spring Festival. Some companies extended their holiday breaks, with many entering a state of suspension after fulfilling the last round of orders, as most downstream enterprises had already completed their winter stockpiling.
After the Spring Festival holiday, white fused alumina enterprises gradually resumed production, but demand recovered slowly. With the decline in alumina prices, production costs were expected to decrease. Downstream companies mainly made purchases based on immediate needs, leading to cautious production by white fused alumina enterprises.
At the end of April, alumina prices began to rise sharply. Alumina suppliers significantly tightened shipments, causing raw material shortages for white fused alumina producers. As a result, some enterprises reduced operating rates or temporarily halted production. Although the rising alumina prices increased the production cost of white fused alumina, the pressure from the demand side made it difficult to raise prices. Furthermore, many white fused alumina enterprises used fixed-price contracts, creating risks of cost inversion. Consequently, some companies limited new orders, prioritized existing customers, reduced raw material purchases, and opted for production based on current orders.
In June, alumina prices stabilized and began to decline, but downstream companies significantly reduced inquiries and purchases, opting only for essential procurement. With expectations of further cost reductions, white fused alumina enterprises also decreased their purchases of alumina. Some companies suspended production to observe the market, keeping operating rates at low levels.
In the third quarter, steel industry profits began to recover, and steel mills resumed production gradually, leading to a slight improvement in demand for white fused alumina. In September, the operating rates of white fused alumina enterprises increased slightly.
However, in the fourth quarter, production costs for white fused alumina surged, raising production risks for enterprises. Some companies also reduced production due to environmental regulations, leading to a further decrease in output. Additionally, with white fused alumina prices rising significantly, downstream enterprises showed a marked decline in purchasing interest. Many turned to alternative raw materials for production, further reducing demand for white fused alumina. This resulted in widespread production halts and a significant drop in output.
In 2024, the terminal demand for fused white alumina in China mainly came from the refractory materials and abrasives industries. Although the demand for white fused alumina in the refractory sector declined compared to previous years due to weak demand driven by poor real estate performance, it still accounted for a majority of white fused alumina sales, approximately 55%. With the national economy in a recovery phase, the industrial manufacturing sector also performed relatively poorly compared to previous years, leading to a decline in the demand for white fused alumina in the abrasives industry, which accounted for about 30% of total sales. Other industries accounted for approximately 15% of sales.
Overall, demand for white fused alumina in 2024 showed no significant improvement. Persistent losses in the steel industry kept demand at a low level. As the price of white fused alumina exceeded that of brown fused alumina, some customers switched to brown fused alumina for production, further reducing demand.
In September, driven by a sharp rise in steel prices, improved steel mill profits, expectations of a peak construction season, and gradually recovering market activity, steel mills showed a stronger willingness to release production capacity. This led to increased refractory demand and a slow rise in orders for white fused alumina enterprises.
After October, however, favorable policies weakened, steel mill operations were average, and refractory demand declined overall. As white fused alumina prices rose rapidly, downstream enterprises significantly reduced their purchases. Except for essential needs, alternative materials were widely used for production, causing a sharp decline in white fused alumina demand.
Demand
Based on the current market conditions, the price of white fused alumina is expected to show a downward trend in 2025. However, in the short term, China's white fused alumina prices will remain higher than those of brown fused alumina. Customers may prefer to purchase brown fused alumina, except for products that must use white fused alumina in their production. Currently, the price of brown fused alumina grain is around 5,400–5,500 RMB/ton. For white fused alumina demand to recover, its grain prices may need to drop to around 5,000 RMB/ton.
Additionally, a pessimistic outlook is circulating in the market: due to the presence of alumina futures, large fluctuations in alumina prices may continue, leading to hesitation among downstream enterprises when purchasing white fused alumina. This could hinder the recovery of white fused alumina demand in 2025. Moreover, with the European Union's anti-dumping investigation into China's fused alumina, the volume of white fused alumina exports to the EU may decrease. Overall, demand for white fused alumina is expected to remain at a low level.
Supply
In 2025, China's alumina production capacity is expected to increase significantly, alleviating the raw material shortage for white fused alumina enterprises. However, with demand remaining weak and prices on a downward trajectory, white fused alumina enterprises will likely continue production on a per-order basis, maintaining operating rates at around 30%.
Cost
In 2024, alumina spot prices reached record highs in recent years due to favorable factors. Alumina prices will begin 2025 at a high level. However, with sufficient supply capacity and significant new capacity additions expected in 2025, the tight alumina supply situation is likely to ease. This will weaken market price support. Nevertheless, challenges such as ore supply issues and equipment maintenance may limit the release of some production capacity, leaving uncertainties in short-term supply-demand matching.
With high alumina prices, downstream enterprises will face significant cost pressures and may attempt to push for lower prices when procuring alumina. Once alumina prices enter a downward trend, cost support will become a focus. Alumina prices are expected to show a high-to-low trajectory in 2025, with the annual price range likely between 3,200–5,200 RMB/ton and an average price of approximately 3,700 RMB/ton.
Overall
In 2025, the total demand for white fused alumina will remain at low levels, and supply will also stay limited. Competition among enterprises will intensify, further narrowing profit margins for white fused alumina producers. As alumina prices decline, the price of white fused alumina is expected to follow suit. The price range for white fused alumina in 2025 is forecasted to be between 4,800–7,300 RMB/ton, with an annual average price of approximately 5,300 RMB/ton.